Gold and silver prices edged higher on MCX amid global weakness and a stronger dollar. Analysts expect short-term correction but see long-term support from central bank buying, lower interest rates, and safe-haven demand. Experts advise gradual accumulation through ETFs or sovereign gold bonds.
Gold and silver prices opened marginally higher on October 23, reflecting cautious optimism among traders even as global weakness weighed on sentiment. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold mini November futures traded at ₹1,21,873 per 10 grams, up 0.66%, while silver mini November futures rose 0.38% to ₹1,48,148 per kg around 10:33 a.m.
Despite these modest gains, analysts noted that the uptick barely offsets the steep global decline seen earlier this week. On the previous trading day, gold and silver had settled at ₹1,21,069 and ₹1,47,583 respectively.
Gold is in new trouble around the world after a long run of record highs. Spot gold has dropped 0.5% to stay near $4,080 an ounce. Analysts suggest that investors are turning cautious after the metal’s sharp rise, which many viewed as unsustainable.
According to Tejas Shigrekar, Chief Technical Research Analyst – Commodities and Currencies at Angel One Ltd, “Gold witnessed a sharp decline of 385 points (8%) from its recent peak, signaling a potential trend reversal after reaching historically overbought levels.” He added that the highest monthly RSI (Relative Strength Index) recorded in recent history indicates exhaustion in bullish momentum, paving the way for a corrective phase.
As India’s festive season nears its end, physical demand is likely to taper off, leaving prices more vulnerable in the near term.
Meanwhile, the MCX Gold December futures traded 0.89% higher at ₹1,22,938 per 10 grams around 9:08 a.m. on Thursday, supported by optimism over a potential India–US trade deal expected in the coming days. Similarly, MCX Silver December contracts climbed 0.93% to ₹1,46,915 per kg.
“Gold prices are expected to move within the ₹1,21,500–₹1,23,000 range for December expiry,” said Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities. He noted that optimism over a US-China trade deal, combined with conciliatory remarks from President Donald Trump ahead of talks with President Xi Jinping, has slightly reduced gold’s safe-haven demand.
However, Trivedi added that gold remains up roughly 55% for the year and over 5% this month, bolstered by expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could deliver two additional rate cuts by year-end.
As of 0310 GMT, U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 0.9% to $4,100.90 per ounce, while the dollar index edged up 0.2% against its peers, making gold more expensive for non-dollar holders.
Investors are closely watching U.S. inflation data due later this week, which may offer clues about the Fed’s next rate move. A stronger dollar and higher yields could briefly stop gold from going up, but experts say the fundamentals are still strong.
Analysts are still optimistic about gold’s long-term resiliency in spite of the short-term volatility. The opportunity cost of owning non-yielding assets like gold is probably going to decrease down as real yields decline and more interest rate cuts are anticipated.
Head of Research at Augmont, Renisha Chainani, says that “gold remains a safe-haven asset for investors in the face of a softer monetary environment.” She said that the fact that central banks in Asia and the Middle East, like China, Russia, and India, have been adding to their gold stocks has made people more confident in gold as a strategic reserve asset.
Chainani added that strategic accumulation by central banks is tightening supply and providing a strong floor to prices.
According to Tejas Shigrekar, international gold—currently around $4,080 per ounce—is expected to find support near $3,800 and $3,670, while resistance levels stand at $4,190 and $4,260. Only a sustained breakout above these levels would signal renewed bullish momentum, he said.
Experts advise long-term investors to accumulate gold gradually on price dips rather than making aggressive entries during volatile phases. “A systematic approach through Gold ETFs or Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs) remains a prudent strategy,” analysts said.
Due to global cues and seasonal weakness, the short-term picture is not clear. However, geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, and interest rate expectations continue to support gold and silver as reliable assets for portfolio diversification.
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