Citigroup’s latest crypto market outlook reveals contrasting paths for Gemini and Bullish. While Gemini’s trading volumes lag, Bullish gains momentum with regulatory wins and institutional growth.
As Citigroup changed its outlooks for two major platforms, Gemini and Bullish, the crypto market continues to show how different the big players are. Bullish seems to be riding a wave of strong momentum, while Gemini’s growth has slowed. This is likely due to recent regulatory progress and institutional acceptance.
According to a new research note from Citigroup analyst Peter Christiansen, the bank has trimmed its price target for Gemini Space Station Inc. (NASDAQ: GEMI) from $26 to $23, maintaining a neutral and high-risk rating. The adjustment reflects weaker-than-expected trading activity despite strong marketing efforts and rising Gemini Card sign-ups.
Gemini’s stock, which traded at $20.60 on Friday—up 5.5%—has shown only modest recovery following a volatile post-IPO performance. The crypto exchange, which debuted publicly at $28 per share, saw its price spike to $46 before plummeting to $22. The current valuation remains far below expectations set earlier this year.
Christiansen noted that October trading volumes were only marginally above September levels and significantly lower than those recorded in July and August. Despite impressive engagement metrics—such as record Gemini Card downloads and a surge in app installations—the broader exchange growth “will likely take longer to materialize,” he said.
The new target price still implies a 45% discount to Coinbase’s (COIN) expected 2027 enterprise value-to-sales ratio, suggesting that Gemini continues to lag behind industry leaders.
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The Gemini Credit Card is one of the few good things about Gemini. It lets users earn Bitcoin, Ethereum, or other crypto currencies as cashback benefits that are sent straight to their accounts. The no-fee card has become a very effective way to get new users.
Cantor Fitzgerald says that the number of people signing up for a card has risen from 8,000 in 2024 to over 31,000 by August 2025. The company also said that 45,000 new people signed up in July and August combined. Analysts say that about half of these cardholders have since started trading on Gemini’s platform, which is causing a growth cycle that keeps going.
The card is becoming more and more famous, and Gemini’s new license under the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework in the European Union is helping the exchange grow outside of the U.S. With this approval, Gemini can start offering crypto staking and futures services all over the EU, which it couldn’t do before because of how it was set up.
However, despite this progress, KBW analysts remain cautious. They acknowledged Gemini’s improving fundamentals but warned that the company “might still face challenges reaching full profitability soon,” especially as it continues rebuilding market trust following the 2022 collapse of FTX and associated liquidity issues with Genesis Capital.
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In contrast, Citigroup raised its price target for Bullish (BLSH) to $77 from $70, maintaining a buy/high-risk rating. The increase represents nearly 40% upside from its current trading price of $55.62.
The positive change is due to the fact that the exchange was recently given a Bit License in New York. This is a big step forward for regulation and opens the door for more operations in the U.S. and better access for institutions. Christiansen and his team emphasized Bullish’s “accelerating momentum” as traditional finance firms increasingly engage with compliant crypto platforms.
“Bullish is well-positioned at the forefront of the next wave of crypto adoption,” Christiansen wrote, noting that improving regulatory clarity could help the company capture significant market share in the coming year.
Even with its recent upswing, Gemini continues to lag behind more established cryptocurrency competitors like Coinbase, Circle, and MicroStrategy in terms of investor sentiment and market performance.
Coinbase(COIN) closed at $387 on October 9, reflecting a 3.42% gain over five days and maintaining a strong one-month rise.
Micro Strategy (MSTR) is worth around $92 billion and trades at $320.29. It has gone up 1.89% in the last month.
Analysts say that Gemini’s new focus on user experience, adding crypto cards, and growing into Europe could help it make a long-term comeback, even though it is still having short-term issues. Most people are still cautiously hopeful, and they want the price to be between $30 and $42. Mizuho Securities has a target of $30, and Needham has a target of $42.
Even though Gemini’s recovery attempts aren’t as well known as those of its stronger competitors, they have been noticed. Through court settlements, the company has given back about $2 billion to investors and added an extra $50 million of its own money to keep things running smoothly.
Six out of eight analysts now rate the stock as a buy, which shows that investors are slowly getting back in faith. As Bitcoin prices rise and market mood generally gets better, Gemini’s next test will be to keep adding users and making money without relying too much on advertising.
The crypto currency market is still split into two paths: Gemini is still rebuilding slowly but steadily, while Bullish is getting investors excited through strategic licensing and institutional acceptance. As digital assets and traditional banking become more connected, both companies will play important roles, though at different speeds.
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